Blogs on How to Invest, Gold & Silver, and Economics 101

Wall Street Fat Cats Make Handy Scapegoats

The hapless “Occupy Wall Street” movement picked up some big-gun supporters this week—maybe big enough guns to capture the attention of the media, campaigning politicos and even the purported targets of the ragtag “protest”—the fat cats of the financial world who are all sitting around getting rich at the expense of the rest of us. But the identity of these new powerful supporters is nothing if not ironic—and gives us a pretty good premonition of how this “movement” will ultimately be co-opted to benefit the very factions who brought us all to the brink of global economic melt-down.

The Wall Street occupation to date has consisted of a loosely organized bunch of disgruntled, mainly young folks complaining of a long litany of ills, with no clear message upon which to build a viable movement.

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Is the Noose Tightening Around Gold?

As most of our WealthCycles.com readers know, governments don’t like gold. You could make an even broader statement and say that governments don’t like anything that competes with their control.  Throughout the centuries, gold has been the ultimate rebel against governments.

Governments around the world are becoming increasingly insolvent. Not only have they borrowed vast amounts of currency, but the citizens of those countries are beginning to wake up to the government economic recklessness for the first time.

The recent history of gold control:

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Fundamentals Don’t Lie



Today we tune into Gold & Silver Radio’s Leigh Greenberg for a review of why the economic fundamentals continue to argue for the long-term growth of gold and silver. Often, when short-term “noise” about the economy becomes too scary or disruptive, it’s useful to review the basic reasons we chose to invest in precious metals to begin with.

“When people lose confidence in the economy they turn to other investments, especially those with intrinsic value like commodities and gold and silver, “ Greenberg explains. Even though recent price volatility in gold and silver may create doubt in the indecisive or faint of heart, the economic fundamentals argue that gold and silver still have a long way to climb.

The tangible things that we eat, use and/or buy. Commodities that are traded include Cattle, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, and Crude Oil, just to cover the Cs. Gold, silver and platinum also are traded on the commodities exchanges as futures contracts.

Inflation is simply an increase in the supply of currency and credit. The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling is defined by the term "price inflation." Central Banks attempt to stop deflation, a natural phenomenon which occurs in order to correct the prior inflation.

Quantitative easing is central banker speak for creating currency to buy debt or other assets.

The process of quantitative easing is fairly simple—it involves printing currency and buying assets from banks—but it can take many different forms. Central banks can use Q.E. to buy relatively safe treasury securities, pumping cash into their vaults to stimulate lending; or they can buy assets that have lost value (think mortgage-backed securities) in order to make banks whole and attempt to shore up their balance sheets. Central banks can also target certain maturities of the assets they purchase, to push down the cost of short-term, medium-term, or long-term borrowing. 

Simply put, bonds are debt. Bonds basically say: "I owe you (IOU) X-amount of currency, plus X-amount of interest." —Michael Maloney, Guide to Investing In Gold & Silver. But, there is more to it than that. Bonds set the cost of borrowing, determine international currency flows, and play a huge role in determining the value of each nation’s currency. That means bonds have a direct effect on the dollars, euros, pesos or yuan in your wallet or bank account.

A market in which the primary price trend is upwards 

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Stocks on a Cliff

Since late July, stocks (as measured by the S&P 500) are down nearly 12%. But despite the fact that confidence has plummeted and the world become embroiled in economic turmoil, stocks are still overvalued, according to one very important metric. 

According to Robert Shiller and his Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio, which takes into account the S&P 500’s last 10 years of earnings, stocks are overvalued by at least 25%, and the scary thing is that doesn’t account for any of the “overshooting” that could happen.

“…After the Great Depression, we went through a period of 20 years where general investors didn’t want anything to do with stocks. The price earnings ratio, this time, after 2000, only got down to around 13, which is slightly below average, but not far below average. We [haven’t] really had the overshooting, yet.”

The word “cycle” comes from the Greek word kyklos, meaning cycle or circle. One common definition of cycle is “a periodically repeated sequence of events.”

The idea of a cycle is symbolized by a circle, which, because there is no beginning or end, represents recurrence. The symbolic circle is often divided into segments—often two, such as the Chinese yin and yang or day/night, but more often four segments, like the seasons.

A recognition and understanding of cycles is one way human beings are able to recognize patterns in data. As early humans learned that events in nature recur over and over again with regularity, they developed the ability to plan for the future, which ultimately led to advanced civilizations.

A market in which the primary price trend is upwards 

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Is Being Optimistic Killing Your Financial Health?

When we think of our own worldview, one of the most common litmus tests we can answer is, “is the glass half-empty or half-full?” If the glass is half-full, you may be a positive thinker—which researchers have shown can be good for your health and well-being. The health benefits of optimism alone can include increased life-span, lowered risk of depression, resistance to disease, and better ability to cope in times of stress.    

But what if being a positive thinker were actually dangerous to your financial health?

Back in June, we wrote an article about how optimism can breed financial crises. Today, we are going to look at how optimism can blow your retirement planning. 

First, let’s look at how optimism breeds financial crises: 

The word “cycle” comes from the Greek word kyklos, meaning cycle or circle. One common definition of cycle is “a periodically repeated sequence of events.”

The idea of a cycle is symbolized by a circle, which, because there is no beginning or end, represents recurrence. The symbolic circle is often divided into segments—often two, such as the Chinese yin and yang or day/night, but more often four segments, like the seasons.

A recognition and understanding of cycles is one way human beings are able to recognize patterns in data. As early humans learned that events in nature recur over and over again with regularity, they developed the ability to plan for the future, which ultimately led to advanced civilizations.

A Speculative bubble is not just about the assets going up in value, but is more about the mentality of the individuals who invest in the asset. Are they struck with euphoria about the asset class or approaching it with a clearer head.

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Turning Down the Volume of a Noisy Week

At WealthCycles.com we often tell people that they should try to ignore the short-term noise caused by traders and a trigger-happy media and instead focus on the big picture—the fundamental forces that drive economies and move the world in new ways. But short-term noise is like the dripping faucet that can drive you nuts if you don’t get up and figure out where it’s coming from. For some people, reading the news and watching the financial media is a habit—and justifiably! Being concerned about your portfolio will be a natural extension of that.  

The latest overreaction to the plunge in gold and silver prices has had people running around like crazy—wondering if the world’s going to burn—and their investments along with it.

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2008 Déjà Vu Signals Rebound for Gold

Amid news that China’s juggernaut economy is slowing and fears that the Eurozoners don’t have the political will to fix what ails them, stock markets worldwide took a dive today. The Dow closed down 738 points—its worst week since October 2008. Gold and silver also dropped dramatically—gold down 9.5% from its Sept. 6 peak of $1,923.70, but with gold and silver, the memory of 2008 is more reassuring. 

Gold fell simply because investors burned in the securities and commodities markets needed the cash to cover margin calls, as reported by Bloomberg earlier today.

The tangible things that we eat, use and/or buy. Commodities that are traded include Cattle, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, and Crude Oil, just to cover the Cs. Gold, silver and platinum also are traded on the commodities exchanges as futures contracts.

Deflation is a contraction of the currency supply, which causes prices to fall and the value of currency to rise. When prices fall, a boom becomes a bust, and suddenly a recession becomes a depression.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, a scholar of the Great Depression, knows the dangers that deflation poses to a debt-based economy.

Inflation is simply an increase in the supply of currency and credit. The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling is defined by the term "price inflation." Central Banks attempt to stop deflation, a natural phenomenon which occurs in order to correct the prior inflation.

A market in which the primary price trend is upwards 

The word “cycle” comes from the Greek word kyklos, meaning cycle or circle. One common definition of cycle is “a periodically repeated sequence of events.”

The idea of a cycle is symbolized by a circle, which, because there is no beginning or end, represents recurrence. The symbolic circle is often divided into segments—often two, such as the Chinese yin and yang or day/night, but more often four segments, like the seasons.

A recognition and understanding of cycles is one way human beings are able to recognize patterns in data. As early humans learned that events in nature recur over and over again with regularity, they developed the ability to plan for the future, which ultimately led to advanced civilizations.

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‘Happy Warrior’ Optimistic for Future of Austrian School



For fans of Murray N. Rothbard and the Austrian School of Economics, this famous 1990 speech shows Rothbard at his most exuberant and optimistic on the occasion of the fall of the Soviet Union, which he believed vindicated the views of his mentor, Ludwig Von Mises.

The “total revolutionary collapse of socialism-communism” inspired Rothbard’s optimism for the future of Austrian economics. “It shows that the spirit of freedom cannot be wiped out,” he tells a classroom full of students, faculty and business leaders at the Mises Institute. “It shows the power of ideas.”

Mises believed that people and ideas do change history, that the decisions of conscious actors determine events, Rothbard explains.

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Jobs Plan Reality Gap



Daniel Henninger, deputy editor of The Wall Street Journal Opinion Page, says that President Barack Obama’s recent address to Congress on the American Jobs Act is at least progress: It sends a signal to the public of exactly how the President sees the U.S. economy.

In this WSJ.com MarketWatch video, Henninger dissects the Jobs Act, which he says targets most of $447 billion in spending to the public sector and those who receive public funding.

 “The other economy, the private sector, is an intellectual abstraction,” Henninger says. “It's like the distant planets that astronomers regard as real but have discovered using mathematical calculations. It is believed that life forms exist in the private economy, but they do so as data points inside the White House Office of Management and Budget.”

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The Dominos Begin Falling



Just a little more than a month after stripping the United States of its coveted credit rating, Standard & Poor's has set its focus on struggling European debt addicts, downgrading the third largest economy in Europe—Italy. The cut was made with negative outlook, meaning that Italy will face further cuts soon if things don’t turn around, and, let’s face it—things aren’t turning around any time soon despite Italy’s best attempts to unveil a brand new austerity program.

Even despite the European Central Bank’s buying Italian bonds to drive down interest rates, Italian borrowing costs have risen steadily. With the third largest bond market in the world (second only to the U.S. and Japan), its downgrade is significant. The Financial Times reported the story early this morning:

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Central Bank Gold-Buying Spree (Update)

As global central banks, led by emerging market banks, are again set to become net buyers of gold, some news from the land of currency disunion surprised us. We all know that emerging market central banks like Mexico, Russia, South Korea, and Thailand have been buying gold to reduce their exposure to the soon-to-be ultimate toxic asset-the U.S. dollar.  

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They Who Live in Glass Houses…

“How wilt thou say to thy brother, Let me pull out the mote out of thine eye; and, behold, a beam is in thine own eye?”

                                                                                    --Matthew 7:4, Holy Bible, King James Version

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner got a sense of what Eurozone leaders think of the pot calling the kettle black today, as his abbreviated meeting with European finance ministers was quickly followed by snippy public comments from many of them.

Simply put, bonds are debt. Bonds basically say: "I owe you (IOU) X-amount of currency, plus X-amount of interest." —Michael Maloney, Guide to Investing In Gold & Silver. But, there is more to it than that. Bonds set the cost of borrowing, determine international currency flows, and play a huge role in determining the value of each nation’s currency. That means bonds have a direct effect on the dollars, euros, pesos or yuan in your wallet or bank account.

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All Together Now!

Even just 10 short years ago, the world wasn’t one big market. Global interconnectedness was something we talked about, but it couldn’t be seen everywhere. A market in Frankfurt acted differently from a market in Shanghai, which acted differently from a Brazilian bourse. Diversification made sense—spread your capital around in different parts of the world, and when the German DAX performed poorly, chances were the Dow was in a rip-roaring rally, and your capital was fairly safe.

In this day and age, however, things are different—or actually things are the same—all over the world. One of the things Michael Maloney talks about in his Debt Collapse: The Case for $20,000 Gold is that stock markets around the world have begun moving together. This can easily be observed: when headlines tout that Europe is burning, we can expect markets in the U.S. to take a lashing as well. 

The Economist’s Buttonwood blogger put together this chart, which shows the stunning rise in correlations among stock markets around the world:

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Must Watch: Mike on Casey Research Debt Crisis Panel



Start the video at time marker 40:47 for Mike. 

Eurozone Scrambles to Keep Greece Afloat

This Reuters video report captures the anxiety of European leaders as the near-certainty of a Greek default and Italy’s struggles to implement economic reform put the future of the euro—and of the global banking system—in jeopardy.

Simply put, bonds are debt. Bonds basically say: "I owe you (IOU) X-amount of currency, plus X-amount of interest." —Michael Maloney, Guide to Investing In Gold & Silver. But, there is more to it than that. Bonds set the cost of borrowing, determine international currency flows, and play a huge role in determining the value of each nation’s currency. That means bonds have a direct effect on the dollars, euros, pesos or yuan in your wallet or bank account.

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Decline and Opportunity

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States, an annual look at the sad sack state of the average American. In nearly every metric, the United States has not just worsened over the past year; it has worsened over the past five decades.

ZeroHedge published a story today that showed that the median male worker is making less than he was 43 years ago, in 1968. When we took a look at the numbers, we deflated them with ShadowStats CPI (teal line) instead of the CPI (CP-Lie)—and boom, the median male worker today is making less than he was back in 1963. 

It’s no surprise when you actually take a look at what’s going on around us. Having a dual income family is practically a requirement for survival these days. In simpler terms, the cost of things is rising faster than income levels. The average individual can’t afford things anymore.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure generated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by tracking the cost of a standard basket of goods and services over the years. At one time, the CPI was a valid yardstick of prices, based on the actual price of the same items year after year. But for the past few decades, the CPI has been comparing apples and oranges, so to speak. Under the methodology used to calculate CPI since 1982, when the price of one item—say a pound of steak—rises significantly, BLS simply substitutes another, less costly item—say a pound of chicken breast. In other cases, BLS uses a technique called hedonic regression, by which its statisticians guesstimate, for example, that an item—say a home computer—built today is probably faster and better than a home computer built 10 years ago. So they adjust the price increase downward to compensate for the assumed higher value of the newer item.

The word “cycle” comes from the Greek word kyklos, meaning cycle or circle. One common definition of cycle is “a periodically repeated sequence of events.”

The idea of a cycle is symbolized by a circle, which, because there is no beginning or end, represents recurrence. The symbolic circle is often divided into segments—often two, such as the Chinese yin and yang or day/night, but more often four segments, like the seasons.

A recognition and understanding of cycles is one way human beings are able to recognize patterns in data. As early humans learned that events in nature recur over and over again with regularity, they developed the ability to plan for the future, which ultimately led to advanced civilizations.

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Greek Crash May Trigger Currency Death Spiral

As the U.S. collectively commemorated the 10th anniversary of 9-11, folks in Europe braced for a different type of calamity.

Over the last week, Greek bonds have plummeted in value (driving one-year yields to a mind-blowing 117%), and with the market predicting a near certainty of default, German busybodies were engaged in trying to prepare contingency plans for their own banks. What surprised people was not the fact Greek bonds have plummeted (aren’t they always doing that?) or that Greece surprised markets by having a bigger deficit this year than last year—even after all the austerity jawboning. What surprised people was that Germany had enough instinct for self-preservation to come up with a Plan B.

A fiat currency is created by a government decree. The Latin word fiat means “let it be done.” And with the stroke of a pen, or the crank of a printing press, “money” is created. Fiat currency has no inherent value—the paper that a $100 dollar bill is printed on is surely not worth $100. It might have been worth a few cents before the government ruined its utility as scrap paper by printing green words and numbers all over it! Compare this with gold, which is a precious, rare metal that is, in many cases, the only substance on earth that can be used for certain human purposes, including science, medicine, and of course—adornment.

Simply put, bonds are debt. Bonds basically say: "I owe you (IOU) X-amount of currency, plus X-amount of interest." —Michael Maloney, Guide to Investing In Gold & Silver. But, there is more to it than that. Bonds set the cost of borrowing, determine international currency flows, and play a huge role in determining the value of each nation’s currency. That means bonds have a direct effect on the dollars, euros, pesos or yuan in your wallet or bank account.

Simply put, bonds are debt. Bonds basically say: "I owe you (IOU) X-amount of currency, plus X-amount of interest." —Michael Maloney, Guide to Investing In Gold & Silver. But, there is more to it than that. Bonds set the cost of borrowing, determine international currency flows, and play a huge role in determining the value of each nation’s currency. That means bonds have a direct effect on the dollars, euros, pesos or yuan in your wallet or bank account.

Simply put, bonds are debt. Bonds basically say: "I owe you (IOU) X-amount of currency, plus X-amount of interest." —Michael Maloney, Guide to Investing In Gold & Silver. But, there is more to it than that. Bonds set the cost of borrowing, determine international currency flows, and play a huge role in determining the value of each nation’s currency. That means bonds have a direct effect on the dollars, euros, pesos or yuan in your wallet or bank account.

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Free Market is Solution to Joblessness

The week’s big news was Obama’s jobs speech to Congress yesterday. The U.S. president rolled out a $447 billion plan to spur job growth via tax cuts and infrastructure spending. To many of us it seemed more of the same stimulus strategy that world governments have been attempting since the crash of 2007—and that so far has failed.

Among Obama’s initiatives would be a payroll tax reduction both for workers and employers—a cost of $240 billion to government revenues—perhaps not a bad thing. But it gets worse. A $50 billion infrastructure spending plan that would pump taxpayer money into roads, bridges, public buildings and airports. An $85 billion plan to pump taxpayer dollars into state and local governments…. It gets worse. A plan to encourage home ownership “by making low-interest mortgages more widely available,” as reported by the BBC…. Wait a minute! Now we know we’ve heard this somewhere before… Isn’t this what ultimately caused the financial crisis to begin with?

Inflation is simply an increase in the supply of currency and credit. The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling is defined by the term "price inflation." Central Banks attempt to stop deflation, a natural phenomenon which occurs in order to correct the prior inflation.

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Mike on the Keiser Report



At 13:42 minutes, Max Keiser talks to Mike Maloney about how high gold would go to account for the money printing. Also about Ben Bernanke, Quantitative Easing, the Ponzi scheme monetary system, and—of particular interest to our numbers-oriented readers—the 1970s bull market, including his formulas for calculating a theoretical peak price for gold.

Mike talks about using the gold held by foreign central banks to determine the price gold would need to rise to in order to restore confidence in the dollar, should the global currency system collapse—something close to $20,000 per ounce. But if one were to simply replace all the fiat currency now in circulation with gold, the price of gold would have to rise to something like $203,000 per ounce

Now, as Mike says, we’re not saying gold prices will rise to those levels. But the exercise does illustrate that gold continues to be extremely undervalued, even as the gold bull market continues its climb. In the end, fiat currency is nothing more than claim checks written against gold, as free market ultimately will revalue gold as the ultimate arbiter of value. 

Ben Bernanke is current Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. He succeeded Alan Greenspan as Chairman in 2006, following his nomination by former President George W. Bush. He is an economist and former professor at Princeton University. Nicknames include "the bernank," and "Helicopter Ben."  

Quantitative easing is central banker speak for creating currency to buy debt or other assets.

The process of quantitative easing is fairly simple—it involves printing currency and buying assets from banks—but it can take many different forms. Central banks can use Q.E. to buy relatively safe treasury securities, pumping cash into their vaults to stimulate lending; or they can buy assets that have lost value (think mortgage-backed securities) in order to make banks whole and attempt to shore up their balance sheets. Central banks can also target certain maturities of the assets they purchase, to push down the cost of short-term, medium-term, or long-term borrowing. 

From Wikipedia.org:

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to separate investors, not from any actual profit earned by the organization, but from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors. The Ponzi scheme usually entices new investors by offering returns other investments cannot guarantee, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors to keep the scheme going.

A market in which the primary price trend is upwards 

A fiat currency is created by a government decree. The Latin word fiat means “let it be done.” And with the stroke of a pen, or the crank of a printing press, “money” is created. Fiat currency has no inherent value—the paper that a $100 dollar bill is printed on is surely not worth $100. It might have been worth a few cents before the government ruined its utility as scrap paper by printing green words and numbers all over it! Compare this with gold, which is a precious, rare metal that is, in many cases, the only substance on earth that can be used for certain human purposes, including science, medicine, and of course—adornment.

Zero Degrees of Separation



“When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe.”

--John Muir (1838 - 1914)

In this PBS Newshour segment, economists Barry Ritholtz of Fusion IQ and Jacob Kirkegaard of the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics discuss one of the important themes of Michael Maloney’s presentations—the inter-related nature of the global economy—and why the peril of one is the peril of all.

One hazard is the enormity of U.S. exposure should the large European economies fail, as Ritholtz explains:

Ben Bernanke is current Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. He succeeded Alan Greenspan as Chairman in 2006, following his nomination by former President George W. Bush. He is an economist and former professor at Princeton University. Nicknames include "the bernank," and "Helicopter Ben."  

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And Another One Gone…

The Swiss Franc—once considered by many as good as gold—has joined a long list of investments formerly known as “safe havens”—safe no more…

After viewing today’s Google Doodle commemorating the 65th anniversary of the late Freddie Mercury’s birth, Queen’s all-time best-selling single, Another One Bites the Dust, seemed right in tune.

In intraday trading, the Swiss franc had fallen 9.9%—a more than 20 standard deviation move in standard statistical measures; or, in other words, a statistical impossibility. This chart, from Felix Salmon’s blog, shows how this move dwarfs even the largest daily changes over the last decade. What market-changing event happened to crush the Swiss Franc?

Inflation is simply an increase in the supply of currency and credit. The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling is defined by the term "price inflation." Central Banks attempt to stop deflation, a natural phenomenon which occurs in order to correct the prior inflation.

Ben Bernanke is current Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. He succeeded Alan Greenspan as Chairman in 2006, following his nomination by former President George W. Bush. He is an economist and former professor at Princeton University. Nicknames include "the bernank," and "Helicopter Ben."  

A fiat currency is created by a government decree. The Latin word fiat means “let it be done.” And with the stroke of a pen, or the crank of a printing press, “money” is created. Fiat currency has no inherent value—the paper that a $100 dollar bill is printed on is surely not worth $100. It might have been worth a few cents before the government ruined its utility as scrap paper by printing green words and numbers all over it! Compare this with gold, which is a precious, rare metal that is, in many cases, the only substance on earth that can be used for certain human purposes, including science, medicine, and of course—adornment.

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PA’s State-Run Liquor Business Demonstrates Hazards of Free Market Manipulation

As the WealthCycles.com team prepares to leave our offices for a long Labor Day weekend, our thoughts naturally turned to prospects of enjoying some of life’s simple pleasures—including, for those of us so inclined, kicking back on the beach or patio with a cold one or three… Then we stumbled upon this article on Andrew Breibart’s BigGovernment.com site, and brother, are we glad we don’t live in the City of Brotherly Love.

Pennsylvania state legislators are fixing later this month to take up a decades-long argument over the future of the state’s arcane alcohol laws. The laws were put into place when Prohibition ended in 1933, when many U.S. states sought to assert control to ward off the wanton hedonism that was certain to ensue. Over time, when dire consequences of allowing alcohol sales failed to materialize, nearly all the states gradually relaxed controls or did away with them altogether. But for some reason, Pennsylvania, along with Utah, retained total control over alcohol sales. In Philadelphia a bizarre system of state-owned and operated liquor stores evolved, a level of state involvement that not even Utah shares.

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Economists Drive Looking In the Rearview Mirror

“Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. ‘Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall—they are the real distorting prisms of human nature.’ Chief among them: ‘Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature.’ Now consider the typical stock market report: ‘Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production.’ Sigh. We're still doing it.

“Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't—and, most importantly, can't—know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled By Randomness

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